【Abstract】
The purpose of this study is to estimate and predict the number of drug users and number of HIV positive drug users in China. Logistic differential equation was used to model the data of registered drug users from 1990 to 2005 in mainland China. The model found that the carrying capacity of registered drug users in mainland China is about 1.26 million and the actual drug users in mainland China is about 3.7 million. The model estimates that that number of HIV positive drug users in mainland China is about 273,000 in 2007.The number might decrease a little in a fewer years because more harm deduction interventions among drug users are implemented in mainland China. However, the HIV epidemic is transferring from drug users to general population in mainland China. China will face more challenging task to curb HIV epidemic.
【Key words】Logistic differential equation; AIDS; Drug users
