Abstract
China is a populous country, a careful analysis and study of our present situation and characteristics of population development ,take practical measures to control the rapid growth of population has become the primary problem which need be solved in China's current economic development .Time series analysis is a statistical method to study the dynamic structure and development law of dynamic data .Based on the example of population growth rate between 1949 and 2004 in the mainland of China , mathematic models were established with time series analysis method and statistic software Eviews ,First of all, be a smooth sequence by processing sequence, followed by computing the sample autocorrelation function and sample partial autocorrelation function, which have preliminarily determined what kind of model used to fit the model and then estimate the unknown parameters.Then use different methods to test the model fitting results. Finally select the best model to predict the population. The model received a good results, therefore the application of time series analysis is effective in population prediction.
Keywords: ARIMA model ; Eviews software ; stability ; invertibility