对我国外贸依存度快速上升现象的思考

论文编号:GM012    论文字数:11940,页数:20

摘     要

       自从2001年中国加入世界贸易组织，我国外贸依存度便节节攀升，呈现出高位运行和快速上升的态势。曾有统计结果表明:截至2005年10月份，我国的外贸依存度已经提升到80%。中国成为世界上外贸依存度最高的国家。外贸依存度快速上升，一方面表明中国参与全球一体化的进程加速；另一方面，外贸依存度快速发展也反映随着我国贸易的迅猛发展，我国经济受世界经济冲击的风险在加大。对此，国内外存在不同的见解。有些专家担心现行我国外贸依存度过高，会影响我国的经济安全，应控制我国贸易的发展速度以规避风险；而有些专家认为我国外贸依存度并没有过高，而是由于一些因素的影响而被高估了。对于我国外贸依存度快速上升发展趋势不必过分担心，它是世界经济发展的大趋势，是必然的。
为了研究我国外贸依存度的发展现况及其趋势，本文以中国外贸依存度为对象，在简单介绍了外贸依存度相关概念的基础上，从横向和纵向两方面分析其发展态势；然后，对其快速攀升发展态势的原因进行分析，探究其真实水平；同时，对人们经常混淆的相关概念进行辨析，讨论我们该如何正确客观的看待我国现行外贸依存度的发展态势。最后，文章对通过分析所暴露的我国贸易发展中存在的安全隐患和风险提出应对措施和建议，以规避外部风险、维护经济安全，促进我国经济的可持续增长和贸易战略的调整。

【关键字】外贸依存度 国际比较 对外开放度 经济安全 贸易战略调整

Abstract

The Ratio of Dependence on Foreign Trade of China has been upgrading continually since China accessed to WTO. It is high up in the air and presents a picture of high-speed. According to government statistics, the Ratio of Dependence on Foreign Trade of China had risen to 80% so far to October 2005. China has become the country with the highest Ratio of Dependence on Foreign Trade. On the one hand, it means that the progress of China taking part in globalization is quickened. On the other hand, it reflects that the impact of world economy on China’ economy is intensified go along with the quick development of China’ trade. Different people have different views about the phenomenon. Some people hold that the RDFT of China is too high and the security of China’ economy will be affected. We should control the development speed of our trade to evade external risks. While others experts think that the RDFT is overestimated by some factors .It is not necessary to worry about it too much. The high-speed of RDFT is the inevitable result of the development of world economy.
To have a clear view of current situation and tendency of RDFT, this thesis chooses RDFT as object. Firstly, this thesis tells us some basic concept about RDFT. On the basis, it analyses the tendency of RDFT from two sides: horizontal and vertical. Then it explains the exact reasons of the quick upward trend and studies the real level of RDFT .At the same time, it discriminates some concepts that people often confuse with RDFT to probe into the question -- how to adopt a correct and objective attitude towards the quick upward trend of RDFT. In the end, this paper gives some corresponding suggestions and measures to evade the hidden risks and troubles in the quick development of China’ trade, safeguard the security of China’ economy, promote the sustainable development and the adjustment of foreign trade strategy.

【Key Words】the Ratio of Dependence on Foreign Trade ; International Comparison; the Ratio of Openness; Security of Economy; Adjustment of Foreign Trade Strategy

目   录 

1 外贸依存度概述 ......................................2
2 我国外贸依存度的发展状况 ............................3
2.1 我国外贸依存度的纵向发展趋势 ......................3
2.2 从国际横向比较看我国外贸依存度的高低 ..............5
3 现行我国外贸依存度快速上升的原因分析 ................8
3.1 外贸政策直接影响外贸依存度........................ 8
3.2 国内产业结构以制造业为主，第三产业比重较低 ........8
3.3 一些因素高估了外贸依存度.......................... 9
3.4 汇率的变动直接影响外贸依存度的水平 ................10
4 对现行外贸依存度快速上升现象的思考 ..................11
4.1 外贸依存度与外贸贡献率的非一致性 ..................11
4.2 对外开放度和外贸依存度的区别 ......................12
4.3 高依存并不意味着高风险 ............................12
5 构建适度的外贸依存度 ................................14
5.1 完善国内经济核算制度 ..............................14
5.2 扩大内需 ..........................................15
5.3 贸易战略的调整 ....................................15
5.4 完善人民币汇率形成机制............................ 17
参考文献 ..............................................19
致  谢 ................................................20