For a long time, how many extents do the long-term fluctuations of RMB exchange rate affect the Sino--US textiles’ trade balance? Nowadays there is still no accordant answer, and at the same time America strongly holds that it should attribute to the underestimate of RMB which results in the large trade balance between the two parts. Under the great pressure, Bush government takes all kinds of measures to force the revaluation of the RMB exchange rate in order to get some changes in the two countries’ trade income and expenses. In this article, the author will make some research on the long-term extents which the exchange rate impacts on the two parts’ textiles’ trade. Based on the estimated level of the RMB exchange rate and the trend of the changes, adding the political factor which influences the China and US trade income and expenses and some relevant analysis about the two parts’ textile trade and RMB exchange rate, the author find that ①In general, the RMB exchange rate has been underestimated, that means that the RMB real exchange rate is depreciated. ②It is not very obvious that the political factor affects the two parts’ trade income and expenses. ③The relation between the two countries’ textiles’ trade balance and RMB exchange rate is negative correlation. But their degree of association is so small that the depreciation of the RMB real exchange rate is not the main reason which leads to the Sino-US textiles’ trade surplus. So the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate couldn’t make some improvements on the China and US textiles’ trade balance originally.
【key words】RMB Real Exchange Rate；Trade Balance of Textile；General index number；Generalized index number；Partial Least Squares method
