中美纺织品贸易差额与人民币汇率的相关关系研究

论文编号:GM102     论文字数:6598,页数:12

摘    要

      长期以来，人民币汇率对中美贸易差额的影响程度有多大？至今没有一致的意见，而美国方面却认为人民币汇率低估导致了中美贸易的巨大差额。企图利用迫使人民币汇率升值来改善两国贸易收支。本文就人民币汇率对中美纺织品贸易差额的长期影响程度进行研究。通过对人民币汇率的估值水平及变动态势，政策因素对中美贸易收支影响程度，中美纺织品贸易与人民币汇率的相关分析等方面的论证，发现：①总体而言，人民币汇率存在低估，也即人民币实际汇率贬值；②政策因素对中美贸易收支的作用不显著；③中美纺织品贸易差额与人民币汇率负相关，但相关程度较小，因而人民币实际汇率贬值并不是导致中美纺织品贸易顺差的主要原因，从而人民币汇率升值并不能从根本上改善中美纺织品贸易差额。

【关键词】 人民币实际汇率 纺织品贸易差额 偏最小二乘法 总指数 广义指数

Abstract

For a long time, how many extents do the long-term fluctuations of RMB exchange rate affect the Sino--US textiles’ trade balance? Nowadays there is still no accordant answer, and at the same time America strongly holds that it should attribute to the underestimate of RMB which results in the large trade balance between the two parts. Under the great pressure, Bush government takes all kinds of measures to force the revaluation of the RMB exchange rate in order to get some changes in the two countries’ trade income and expenses. In this article, the author will make some research on the long-term extents which the exchange rate impacts on the two parts’ textiles’ trade. Based on the estimated level of the RMB exchange rate and the trend of the changes, adding the political factor which influences the China and US trade income and expenses and some relevant analysis about the two parts’ textile trade and RMB exchange rate, the author find that ①In general, the RMB exchange rate has been underestimated, that means that the RMB real exchange rate is depreciated. ②It is not very obvious that the political factor affects the two parts’ trade income and expenses. ③The relation between the two countries’ textiles’ trade balance and RMB exchange rate is negative correlation. But their degree of association is so small that the depreciation of the RMB real exchange rate is not the main reason which leads to the Sino-US textiles’ trade surplus. So the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate couldn’t make some improvements on the China and US textiles’ trade balance originally.

【key words】RMB Real Exchange Rate；Trade Balance of Textile；General index number；Generalized index number；Partial Least Squares method

目   录

1 导言 ....................................................2
1.2 文献回顾 ..............................................2
1.2 本文的研究背景、意义及创新 ............................2
2 模型构建................................................ 3
3 数据说明 ................................................4
3.1 变量选择 ..............................................4
3.2 数据来源 ..............................................5
3.3 人民币汇率变动态势描述 ................................6
3.4 数据的描述统计 ........................................6
4 估计结果 ................................................6
5 结论及政策建议 ..........................................7
5.1 结论及原因分析 ........................................7
5.2 政策建议 ..............................................8
参考文献 ..................................................10
致谢 ......................................................12