R-squared 0.995394 Mean dependent var 1.357658
Adjusted R-squared 0.994182 S.D. dependent var 0.440733
S.E. of regression 0.033616 Akaike info criterion -3.74206
Sum squared resid 0.021471 Schwarz criterion -3.44953
Log likelihood 52.77578 F-statistic 821.2834
Durbin-Watson stat 2.033644 Prob(F-statistic) 0
Inverted AR Roots 0.67
7.
ADF Test Statistic -0.720309 1% Critical Value* -4.3942
5% Critical Value -3.6118
10% Critical Value -3.2418
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(Y)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/04/05 Time: 08:28
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2003
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
Y(-1) -0.067997 0.094400 -0.720309 0.4797
D(Y(-1)) 0.239652 0.230170 1.041194 0.3102
C 0.169245 0.123393 1.371586 0.1854
@TREND(1978) 0.022746 0.021963 1.035677 0.3127
R-squared 0.158155 Mean dependent var 0.258038
Adjusted R-squared 0.031878 S.D. dependent var 0.197208
S.E. of regression 0.194039 Akaike info criterion -0.290500
Sum squared resid 0.753026 Schwarz criterion -0.094157
Log likelihood 7.485995 F-statistic 1.252449
Durbin-Watson stat 2.217045 Prob(F-statistic) 0.317368
8.
ADF Test Statistic 1.005737 1% Critical Value* -3.7343
5% Critical Value -2.9907
10% Critical Value -2.6348
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(Y)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/04/05 Time: 08:28
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2003
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
Y(-1) 0.026036 0.025887 1.005737 0.3260
D(Y(-1)) 0.179633 0.223140 0.805025 0.4298
C 0.105409 0.107081 0.984384 0.3361
R-squared 0.113006 Mean dependent var 0.258038
Adjusted R-squared 0.028530 S.D. dependent var 0.197208
S.E. of regression 0.194375 Akaike info criterion -0.321590
Sum squared resid 0.793411 Schwarz criterion -0.174333
Log likelihood 6.859083 F-statistic 1.337734
Durbin-Watson stat 2.125481 Prob(F-statistic) 0.283901
9.
ADF Test Statistic 2.905696 1% Critical Value* -2.6649
5% Critical Value -1.9559
10% Critical Value -1.6231
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(Y)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/04/05 Time: 08:30
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2003
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
Y(-1) 0.046150 0.015883 2.905696 0.0082
D(Y(-1)) 0.212369 0.220493 0.963158 0.3459
R-squared 0.072077 Mean dependent var 0.258038
Adjusted R-squared 0.029899 S.D. dependent var 0.197208
S.E. of regression 0.194238 Akaike info criterion -0.359813
Sum squared resid 0.830022 Schwarz criterion -0.261642
Log likelihood 6.317757 Durbin-Watson stat 2.159296